
Will Friedrich Merz still be the leader of CDU at the end of 2024?
16
Ṁ1kṀ6kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
YES1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Some political observers say that he will have to resign after prospective losses in the elections in Saxony, Thuringia and Brandenburg in September.
Recent polls show Merz’s party at 29% (35% AfD, strongest opposition party) in Saxony and 22% (34% AfD) in Thuringia.
https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/landtage/
https://amp.dw.com/en/is-germanys-far-right-afd-a-threat-to-democracy/a-67843885
This question will be resolved as soon as Merz announces his resignation or on 1st of January of 2025 if he holds office to that point.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ218 | |
| 2 | Ṁ131 | |
| 3 | Ṁ34 | |
| 4 | Ṁ32 | |
| 5 | Ṁ18 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will Hendrik Wüst succeed Friedrich Merz as the leader of the CDU?
36% chance
Will a member of the AfD party serve as chancellor in Germany by the end of 2030?
8% chance
Will any German State Prime Minister in 2026 be elected with AfD support?
60% chance
Will the German AfD be in power on state (Bundesland) level by the end of 2026?
43% chance
Who will be elected Chancellor after the next German federal election?
Will the new the new coalition of CDU/CSU/SPD govern until the end of the term in spring 2029?
57% chance
Will the next German Chancellor be elected with AfD support?
37% chance
Any viable coalition without AfD/BSW/Left? (German federal election)
68% chance
The current German government of CDU/CSU and SPD dissolves prior to February 2029 elections?
43% chance