Will JD Vance mention ‘If anyone builds it everyone dies’ by Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky before 2026?
33
Ṁ100Ṁ1.9kresolved Jan 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Was inspired by JD Vance mentioning AI 2027. For this to resolve yes:
Direct References:
• Says the book title “If anyone builds it everyone dies”
• Names both authors “Nate Soares and Eliezer Yudkowsky” in context of the book
• Shows or holds up the book
Indirect but Clear References:
• “I read that book by Eliezer about AI alignment”
• “There’s this book that says if anyone builds AGI, everyone dies”
• Mentions reading/discussing a book by “Eliezer” or “Yudkowsky” about AI risks/alignment/safety
Context Requirements:
• Must occur in public setting: interviews, speeches, social media, podcasts, debates, etc.
• Must be verifiable through video, audio, or reliable transcript
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get
1,000 to start trading!
🏅 Top traders
| # | Trader | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ78 | |
| 2 | Ṁ52 | |
| 3 | Ṁ36 | |
| 4 | Ṁ32 | |
| 5 | Ṁ32 |
People are also trading
Related questions
Will If Anyone Builds It appear in a NYT bestseller list again?
5% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be on the Joe Rogan Experience podcast before the end of 2026?
13% chance
Spanish translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?
1/14/27
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky win the Time Magazine person of the year by 2042?
5% chance
Will a book titled "Jeremy Nixon and The Methods of Rationality" (JNMOR) be written by EOY2045?
50% chance
At the beginning of 2035, will Eliezer Yudkowsky still believe that AI doom is coming soon with high probability?
59% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky appear on the cover of any of these magazines before 2028?
20% chance
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky run for President of the United States by 2060?
4% chance
German translation of "If Anyone Builds It, Everyone Dies" appears when?
10/28/26