California legally relaxes seat belt laws in response to improved safety through 2043
California legally relaxes seat belt laws in response to improved safety through 2043
9
190Ṁ1572044
27%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
California will officially lower or remove the penalty for some drivers due to improved safety. If it's just for some vehicles or some modes that counts. Reduced enforcement or decriminalization without an official announcement doesn't count. Regional change don't count, it must be state level.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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