Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by August 1, 2025, there is credible evidence that China has initiated a military invasion of Taiwan. This includes, but is not limited to:

• Deployment of Chinese military forces onto Taiwanese territory.

• Sustained military operations targeting Taiwan.

Official statements from the Taiwanese government, reputable international news agencies, or recognized defense organizations confirming such actions will serve as the basis for resolution.

Background

Tensions between China and Taiwan have been escalating, with China conducting military exercises near Taiwan and enhancing its military capabilities. In March 2025, Taiwan's Defense Ministry identified 2027 as a potential year for a Chinese invasion during its annual military drills, reflecting growing concerns over China's intentions. (bloomberg.com)

Despite these developments, some analysts argue that a full-scale invasion in 2025 is unlikely due to China's internal challenges, including economic concerns and the need for further military modernization. (maritime-executive.com)

Considerations

While military activities and rhetoric have intensified, an actual invasion would represent a significant escalation with profound global implications. Traders should monitor official communications and credible news sources for developments leading up to August 1, 2025.