Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if the candidate officially elected as President of the United States in the November 2028 presidential election is a nominee or official representative of the Democratic Party.

This market resolves to NO if the candidate elected President in 2028 is affiliated with the Republican Party, a third party, or runs as an independent.

Key resolution rules:

• The outcome will be determined once the election winner is officially certified by the joint session of the U.S. Congress in January 2029, or earlier if consensus is called across major decision desks (e.g., Associated Press, CNN, NBC News, Decision Desk HQ) and no viable legal challenge overturns the result.

• Official certification records can be tracked via the U.S. National Archives.

• If the 2028 election results in a contingent election decided by the House of Representatives, the market resolves based on the political party affiliation of the individual selected and inaugurated as President.

Background

The 2028 United States presidential election will take place on November 7, 2028. Under the Twenty-second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, individuals elected to the presidency twice are term-limited and ineligible to be elected again. As a result, 2028 is expected to feature open primaries across major parties.