Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, 11:59 PM UTC, far-right political actors or movements achieve complete control or unilateral dominance over all primary American governing and civic institutions, broadly recognized as an authoritarian or one-party takeover.

Specifically, this requires established, credible consensus among major international democracy indices (such as the V-Dem Institute or Freedom House) and standard mainstream news sources confirming that:

1. All three branches of the federal government (the Executive, both chambers of Congress, and the Supreme Court) are controlled by far-right or extremist factions.

2. Independent institutional checks—including federal law enforcement, the civil service, and military leadership—have been systematically subordinated to partisan/ideological control, with constitutional democratic alternation of power effectively eliminated.

If significant independent democratic institutions, political opposition, or independent state/federal bodies persist through December 31, 2049, this market resolves to NO.

Note: Because "far-right" and "all institutions" are inherently subjective concepts, the market creator reserves the right to edit or specify additional measurable metrics prior to resolution. In the event of persistent ambiguity without clear consensus, resolution may default to a creator determination or a community poll.

Background

Discussions regarding institutional control in the United States often center on political polarization, democratic backsliding, and shifts in administrative governance. Political science frameworks—such as those published by V-Dem, the Pew Research Center, and Freedom House—track the erosion of institutional checks and balances, the politicization of the judiciary and civil service, and executive aggrandizement. Determining whether a political movement has "seized all institutions" generally depends on whether formal checks, civil liberties, and competitive multi-party elections remain operational or have been replaced by de facto authoritarian governance.