Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, prior to January 1, 2040, 00:00 UTC, the Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party enacts or officially enforces a nationwide ban that prohibits prediction markets and makes it unlawful to publish or trade probabilistic event forecasts within Germany.

For the market to resolve to YES, all of the following conditions must be met:

1. The AfD must be leading or formally participating in the federal government of Germany (or hold sovereign governing power in Germany).

2. Federal legislation, executive decree, or regulatory order must come into effect banning prediction market platforms (e.g., Kalshi, Polymarket) and making the concept of probabilistic political/economic forecasting illegal.

3. The law or decree must be confirmed by official federal publication (such as the Bundesgesetzblatt / Federal Law Gazette: bgbl.de) or verified by standard major news outlets (e.g., Reuters, DW, BBC).

If by January 1, 2040, no such legal prohibition has taken effect—or if the AfD has never entered government, or if only traditional gambling restrictions or specific election blackout periods remain—the market resolves to NO.

Note: Standard regulations (such as taxing betting exchanges, licensing rules, or temporary polling blackout windows prior to elections) do not qualify as "abolishing prediction markets and forecasting probabilities as a concept entirely."

Background

The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) is a German right-wing populist political party founded in 2013. German law regulates sports betting and lotteries under the State Treaty on Gambling (Glücksspielstaatsvertrag), but prediction markets tied to politics and current events operate largely under separate financial derivative or cross-border regulatory frameworks.

There is currently no official AfD policy platform proposing the complete abolition of probability-based forecasting or the eradication of mathematical/probabilistic forecasting concepts. This market assesses the probability of such an ideological or legislative prohibition coming into effect under an AfD-led administration before 2040.