Resolution criteria

This market operates as an independent multiple-choice market where each cause/outcome resolves individually based on events occurring prior to January 1, 2400 (UTC).

• For the purposes of this market, "mass extinction" of humans is defined as either complete biological extinction of Homo sapiens or a catastrophic population reduction of at least 95% of the global human population within a consecutive 100-year window before 2400.

• Each cause option will resolve YES if an event directly precipitates or predominantly causes human mass extinction as defined above prior to January 1, 2400:

  • Yes, due to anthropogenic climate change or ecological collapse: Resolves YES if runaway climate tipping points, biosphere collapse, or ocean deoxygenation/acidification driven by human activity causes mass extinction.

  • Yes, due to an existential risk from artificial intelligence (AGI/ASI): Resolves YES if autonomous or unaligned artificial intelligence systems cause mass extinction.

  • Yes, due to a catastrophic engineered pandemic or biological threat: Resolves YES if a synthetic, modified, or naturally occurring biological pathogen causes mass extinction.

  • Yes, due to nuclear war or global thermonuclear conflict: Resolves YES if global nuclear exchange and its aftermath (e.g., severe nuclear winter and agricultural collapse) cause mass extinction.

  • Yes, due to an asteroid impact, supervolcano, or cosmic event: Resolves YES if a near-Earth object impact, massive volcanic caldera eruption, nearby gamma-ray burst, or other astrophysical phenomenon causes mass extinction.

• Survival options:

  • No, humanity survives and continues past 2400 without mass extinction: Resolves YES if the human species survives beyond January 1, 2400, without experiencing a ≥95% population collapse or extinction before that date.

  • No, extremely unlikely in 2400: Subjective option; market creator should clarify or traders should treat as non-resolving / resolve N/A unless tied to an explicit consensus threshold prior to close.

• In the event of complete extinction where no observers remain to verify resolution, the market assumes settlement based on best historical/archival consensus up to the point of final collapse.

Background

Existential risk studies categorize potential human extinction pathways into anthropogenic risks (human-caused) and natural risks (astrophysical or geological):

• Anthropogenic risks: Major research institutions such as Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute and Cambridge's Centre for the Study of Existential Risk have highlighted risks from advanced AI alignment failure, engineered dual-use pathogens, full-scale nuclear exchange, and cascading climate/ecological collapse tipping points as the primary drivers of existential risk in the near centuries.

• Natural risks: Natural background extinction risks—such as large bolide impacts (≥1 km diameter) or supervolcanic eruptions (VEI 8)—have relatively well-quantified frequency baselines across millions of years, placing their annual probability orders of magnitude lower than most estimates of anthropogenic existential risks.