One year later, how will Manifold users view the effects of arXiv's separation from Cornell University?

Question

ArXiv is separating from Cornell University, going independent, and hiring a CEO. One year after this announcement, what effects will the Manifold community feel this has had on arXiv?

On March 13, 2027, I will create a Manifold poll with 4 options: 
   1. Mostly Positive

2. No Change
   3. Mostly Negative

4. See Results
This poll will remain open for exactly 7 days. Once the poll has closed, this market will resolve to % based on the proportional vote share, excluding the "See Results Option."

Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, No Change, followed by Mostly Negative and Mostly Positive are most likely. See the market for live updates (10 traders, as of Mar 19, 2026).

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