When will we confidently know whether AOH1996 is effective?
When will we confidently know whether AOH1996 is effective?
6
500Ṁ5632030
7%
2023
9%
2024
10%
2025
19%
2026
20%
2027
13%
2028
10%
2029
13%
2030 or later
Clinical trials take a long time, but results may trickle in and further research may either confirm or disconfirm efficacy sooner. How long until we are relatively certain whether the drug works?
Resolves to the year in which the linked market stays continuously above 95% or below 5% for a full week, based on the beginning of the week if it matters. If the market resolves to YES or NO, that also counts. If it resolves to anything else (N/A, PROB) before having met that percentage criteria, this market resolves N/A.
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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