Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 250 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ696May 31
62%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market tracks Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing).
Measurement date: May 31, 2026
Resolution:
YES if: Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) ≥ 250 million tonnes on 2026-05-31
NO if: Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) < 250 million tonnes on 2026-05-31
Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources reports, Roskill supply chain studies
Indonesia reduced its 2026 RKAB quota to 250-260 million tonnes, potentially removing up to 7-8% of expected global nickel ore supply this year.
Rationale: Indonesia's cut on the mining work-plan quota reduces global nickel supply, affecting the raw ore availability for smelters, and tightening the market.
Source: Article
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
Will Nickel price on the London Metal Exchange exceed 8500 USD/tonne on May 31, 2026?
84% chance
Will Nickel price on the London Metal Exchange exceed 8000 USD/tonne on May 31, 2026?
83% chance
Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 230 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?
63% chance
Will Global nickel ore production (15-month trailing) exceed 270 million tonnes on May 31, 2026?
18% chance
Will Nickel price on the London Metal Exchange exceed 9000 USD/tonne on May 31, 2026?
86% chance
Will the LME nickel price exceed 9500 USD/tonne on July 1, 2026?
87% chance
Will the LME nickel futures price exceed 8500 USD/tonne on July 1, 2026?
91% chance
Will the LME nickel price exceed 9000 USD/tonne on July 1, 2026?
90% chance
Will 2026 nickel production from PT Weda Bay Nickel exceed 30 million wet metric tonnes on December 31, 2027?
50% chance
Will 2026 nickel production from PT Weda Bay Nickel exceed 24 million wet metric tonnes on December 31, 2027?
50% chance