Will the American Bullfrog (Aquarana catesbeianus) become extinct in the current century?
Will the American Bullfrog (Aquarana catesbeianus) become extinct in the current century?
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The American Bullfrog is a large frog species native to eastern North America. It has also been introduced into the Western United States, South America, Europe, and Southeast Asia, where is an invasive species. This market will resolve YES if the American Bullfrog is declared extinct by the IUCN by 2100 or earlier, and NO if it is not declared extinct by the IUCN in 2100.
Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_bullfrog
IUCN Red List of Threatened Species Assessment: Least Concern
https://www.iucnredlist.org/species/58565/193396825
For comparison here the market about the wild extinction risk of the species:
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Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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