This market will resolve YES if by December 31, 2027:

• A peer-reviewed academic paper, technical report, or widely-cited preprint (e.g., on arXiv) is published

• The paper specifically identifies significant flaws, limitations, or fundamental problems in AI reasoning models

• The paper must focus on reasoning models or reasoning capabilities within larger AI systems

• The paper must present evidence or arguments that these flaws are inherent or significant, not just minor implementation issues

The market will resolve NO if:

• No such paper is published by December 31, 2027

• Published papers only identify minor or easily fixable issues

• Papers only discuss theoretical possibilities without evidence