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In the next five years, will the people who make the Doomsday Clock declare Doomsday?
12
Ṁ1kṀ634
2028
7%
chance

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock

The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, who make the famous Doomsday Clock, thinks (or claims to think) humanity is now closer to global catastrophe than at any point since 1947*. I find this rather hard to believe.

What does Manifold think? Is a catastrophe coming?

I don't know how they define "catastrophe", so I'll leave it up to them! I'll count it as a catastrophe if the Bulletin says it's a catastrophe -- that is, if they say that "Doomsday" has come.

* More precisely, that we thought we were at any point since 1947

This is a duplicate of another market that I made with the wrong close date...

https://manifold.markets/Boklam/in-the-next-five-years-will-the-peo

Market context
Doomsday
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