Will the US government crush OpenAI while Elon Musk is a government employee, in 2025?
Will the US government crush OpenAI while Elon Musk is a government employee, in 2025?
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This market resolves YES if, in @SaviorofPlant 's interpretation, the United States federal government has "crushed" OpenAI in 2025. It resolves NO once Elon Musk has not been a government employee (in a position such as DOGE) for a month.
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All the news reports I've seen have indicated that Musk is not an "employee" but only in some kind of advisory volunteer role. I assume that's still meant to qualify for YES here?
Answered by Savior of Plant in the original market: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-the-us-government-crush-openai#8z9nxkxtehu
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
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