'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date

Question

This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'. Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.

The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product. Open, non-selective waitlists count. Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not. Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.

See also:

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Manifold Markets · Answer

Per Manifold Markets prediction market, Before 2026-12-16, followed by Before 2026-12-01 and Before 2026-11-16 are most likely. See the market for live updates (7 traders, as of Sep 23, 2026).

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