Will the first artificial superintelligence (ASI) be a large language model (LLM)?
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36%
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I will decide whether or not a system counts as an ASI based on [Justice Stewart's criterion](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/I_know_it_when_I_see_it) and whether it counts as an LLM based on a poll. I will not bet on this market.
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You won't decide anything because you'll be dead from the ASI.
In any case, humans won't build an ASI. They'll build an AGI (if we let them), which will build an ASI. We can speculate about what kind of architecture such a thing might have, but that's past the singularity and all bets are quite literally off.
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