Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?
Will Chinese social credit system be thought to be based on AI with own goals by end of 2035?
9
1kṀ10212035
23%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves based on news reports, and Manifold poll in case of doubt.
If by 2035 (or social credit shutdown, if it happens earlier) the main part of system remains manually-set weights for each deed, this market resolves NO. If the core is AI thought to have own goals and pursuing them while assigning ratings, resolves YES. If there are doubts, this market can resolve PROB, leaning towards NO.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Stargate be the US version of the Chinese Social Credit System (社会信用体系) by the end of 2028?
6% chance
Will at least one Western-based AI/LLM introduce social credit scoring as part of its self-empowerment by EOY2030
50% chance
Will AI be smarter than any one human probably around the end of 2025?
16% chance
Will the Chinese government announce a equivalent AI project to Stargate in 2025
33% chance
Will an AI Lab in China build AGI before 2030?
55% chance
By 2026, will there be a publicly reported instance of a AI social media algorithm displaying power-seeking behaviors?
9% chance
Will AI be a bigger political issue than China by the end of 2028?
38% chance
Will advanced AI systems be found to have faked data on algorithm improvements for purposes of positive reinforcement by end of 2035?
50% chance
Will I believe any AI system is conscious before 2027?
48% chance
Will an AI be solely responsible for an AI breakthrough by the end of 2030?
76% chance