Will we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars?
5
360Ṁ169
2030
15%
before 2030
17%
2030-2034
21%
2035-2039
47%
Other

Credit to @OlegEterevsky for the question



Resolve to YES if a strong evidence is found for life to have existed on Mars at any point in its history. The evidence should be direct, comparable to our evidence for life on Earth 3.4 Gy ago (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earliest_known_life_forms).

Lifeforms introduced by humans intentionally or otherwise don't count.

Science
Aliens
Mars
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

People are also trading

Will we discover evidence for the past or present life on Mars before 2030?
24% chance
Will NASA/ESA find microbial life on Mars before 2050?
+13% 1d35% chance
By the start of 2033, will there be consensus that there has ever been life on Mars that was not brought there by humans?
+9% 1d27% chance
Has NASA's Perseverance rover found traces of extraterrestrial life ?
+9% 1d25% chance
Will proof of life of extraterrestrial origin be found by 2100?
+4% 1d71% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2027?
+4% 1d9% chance
By the end of 2040, will there be strong evidence of life (of non-terrestrial origin) in our solar system?
+4% 1d32% chance
Will there be evidence of extraterrestrial life presented by the end of the year 2028?
+4% 1d10% chance
Will alien biological material be found on Mars by 2025?
4% chance
Will evidence of life be discovered on Mars before 2040?
21% chance
© Manifold Markets, Inc.•Terms•Privacy