More context for these scenarios is provided in this article on the Forecasting AI Futures blog. I will not bet on this market.

Resolution Criteria

Each answer resolves YES if the specified governance scenario occurs by the stated deadline, and NO otherwise. Several scenarios can come true, and I'll use my best judgement to resolve each one.

Location Verification for US Export Controls: Resolves YES if the US requires location verification for exported AI chips before 2028. The US has explored location verification features in shipments of advanced chips to prevent illegal diversion to adversaries. Enforcement timing after enactment does not affect resolution.

EU Market Access Conditions: Resolves YES if the EU adopts hardware-enabled mechanism (HEM) requirements for EU market access before 2029, including minimal requirements implementable via firmware updates. For instance, HEM requirements may be amended to the EU AI Act to enable enforcement.

US-China Treaty Verification: Resolves YES if both countries sign an AI treaty (binding or non-binding) controlling or monitoring AI development that involves HEMs by 2030. Agreements on HEM development or future HEM adoption for treaty verification would suffice.

Allied Coordination on HEMs: Resolves YES if key countries in the AI hardware supply chain (e.g. US, EU, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Netherlands) coordinate on HEM development and/or deployment targeting tamper-evident or tamper-proof mechanisms by 2030.

Commercially Available HEMs: Resolves YES if fully tamper-evident or tamper-proof AI hardware becomes commercially available before 2030.