Will Ukraine win at least one medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?
6
Ṁ100Ṁ92Feb 23
72%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Market context
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000People are also trading
Related questions
How many Gold medals will the United States win at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
Will China win more gold medals than the United States of America at the 2026 Milano Cortina Winter Olympics?
24% chance
Will a Ukrainian athlete win a race at the Milano Cortina 2026 Winter Olympics?
32% chance
2026 Winter Olympics Most Overall Medals?
Will Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
20% chance
Will Iceland win another Olympic medal in 2026 or 2028?
34% chance
Will ROC (Russian Olympic Committee) participate in the 2026 Winter Olympic Games?
2% chance
Will Russia make territorial gains in Ukraine in 2026?
89% chance
Will Ukrainians be dancing in celebration before the end of 2026?
19% chance
Will a NATO member send troops to Ukraine before 2026?
3% chance