Prop resolves Yes if, according to the last Siena College poll published on or before June 30, 2026, Zohran Mamdani’s net favorability rating among New York City residents is positive.

This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:

https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest

The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:

https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7

This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.