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MANIFOLD
Which members of Trump's current cabinet will leave their posts before the first 100 days of the new Congress are over?
1
Ṁ525Ṁ139
2027
56%
Pete Hegseth - Secretary of War
56%
Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. - Secretary of Health and Human Services
50%
Marco Rubio - Secretary of State
41%
Kelly Loeffler - Administrator of the Small Business Administration
38%
Scott Bessent - Secretary of the Treasury
38%
Todd Blanche - Attorney General
38%
Doug Burgum - Secretary of the Interior
38%
Jay Clayton - Director of National Intelligence
38%
Doug Collins - Secretary of Veterans Affairs
38%
Jamieson Greer - United States Trade Representative
38%
Brooke Rollins - Secretary of Agriculture
38%
Keith Sonderling - Secretary of Labor
36%
Sean Duffy - Secretary of Transportation
36%
Howard Lutnick - Secretary of Commerce
36%
Linda McMahon - Secretary of Education
36%
Markwayne Mullin - Secretary of Homeland Security
36%
John Ratcliffe - Director of the Central Intelligence Agency
36%
Scott Turner - Secretary of Housing and Urban Development
36%
Russ Vought - Director of the Office of Management and Budget
36%
Chris Wright - Secretary of Energy

Each market will resolve "Yes" if the person listed leaves the office stated before noon on April 13, 2027. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No". This covers leaving their post by any means and for any reason. The fact that a person listed takes another post in the administration, including one that is listed at this cabinet level, will not change the result.

This list is compiled from the White House website for the Cabinet.

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Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself. While the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all, be-all, and all traders should look at the rules. Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments. In the unlikely event of significant ambiguity regarding whether the resolution criteria have been met. I reserve the right to resolve a question to a percentage that I deem fair or N/A the market. I will give notice before I do this.

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