Will a Chinese AI lab deliver another breakthrough that significantly exceeds global market expectations before December 2026?

This market resolves YES if a newly released Chinese AI model meets BOTH conditions:

1. Frontier-level performance: Matches or exceeds the highest-scoring non-Chinese model on the Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index at the time of evaluation.

2. Major cost advantage: Offers at least 50% lower API cost per Intelligence Index task than that leading non-Chinese model.

Eligible developers include DeepSeek, Qwen, Kimi, GLM, MiniMax, ByteDance, and other Chinese AI labs.

Only publicly released models between November 5 and November 30, 2026, qualify.

Private previews, unverified benchmarks, and marketing claims do not count.

The market resolves NO if no qualifying model meets both conditions by November 30, 2026.

Resolution source: https://artificialanalysis.ai/models

Deadline: November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM PT.

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