Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?
Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?
➕
Plus
16
Ṁ380
2029
23%
chance

The first eye transplant has recently taken place, though as of writing it’s not sure the recipient will be able to see again. But the technology is developing and presumably two people with one eye each are better off than one person with both eyes. Hence the consequentialist case for living eye donations should work analogously to living kidney donations.

This resolves YES if anyone self-identifying with effective altruism voluntarily donates at least one eye to someone else while alive by close. The transplantation does not have to be successful, but the eye has to be removed. A voluntary donation of part of the eye (e.g. a live corneal transplantation) also counts. I will also include people identifying as “EA-adjacent” or similar.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S3.00


Sort by:
1y

Incredible banner image

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.Terms + Mana-only TermsPrivacyRules