Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?
Will any living self-identified EA donate an eye by 2030?
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The first eye transplant has recently taken place, though as of writing it’s not sure the recipient will be able to see again. But the technology is developing and presumably two people with one eye each are better off than one person with both eyes. Hence the consequentialist case for living eye donations should work analogously to living kidney donations.
This resolves YES if anyone self-identifying with effective altruism voluntarily donates at least one eye to someone else while alive by close. The transplantation does not have to be successful, but the eye has to be removed. A voluntary donation of part of the eye (e.g. a live corneal transplantation) also counts. I will also include people identifying as “EA-adjacent” or similar.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
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