MANIFOLD
2026 Winter Olympics: Figure Skating Gold Medal Winner (W)
3
Ṁ5kṀ245
Feb 16
23%
Adeliia PETROSIAN (AIN)
22%
Amber GLENN (USA)
21%
Alysa LIU (USA)
18%
Kaori SAKAMOTO (JPN)
16%
Other

Resolution criteria

The women's singles figure skating competition at the 2026 Winter Olympics will be held at the Milano Ice Skating Arena in Milan, Italy, with the short program occurring on February 17, and the free skate on the 19th. The gold medal winner will be determined by the highest combined score from the short program and free skate, judged using the ISU International Judging System. Resolution will be based on the official Olympic results published on Olympics.com.

Background

Few chapters in figure skating rival the drama of the women's singles event at the Winter Olympics. The 2026 Games mark a pivotal turning point: a potential American renaissance on the world's grandest stage after two decades of drought, the final curtain for a Japanese legend, and the shadowy return of Russian technical supremacy under the banner of neutrality.

The United States, starved of Olympic singles hardware since Cohen's 2006 silver, arrive with unprecedented depth. Amber Glenn captured her third consecutive national title—the first three-peat since Michelle Kwan—leading a podium completed by Alysa Liu and Isabeau Levito. Liu's comeback ranks among the sport's greatest: after retiring at 16 following Beijing 2022, she returned to claim 2025 World gold in Boston, ending America's 19-year drought at Worlds (since Kimmie Meissner in 2006), further backing it up with a gold medal in the 2025/26 Grand Prix Final. This formidable trio is primed to shatter the Olympic medal drought that now spans five Olympics.

Japan's Kaori Sakamoto, the elegant three-time World champion (2022–2024) and 2022 Olympic bronze medalist, competes in her final Games after announcing retirement in June 2025. At 25, she seeks a silver or gold to crown a legacy of unmatched consistency, expressive artistry, and quiet resilience amid the sport's technical escalation.


Yet, the wildcard remains Adeliia Petrosian, the Russian prodigy skating as an AIN. First woman to land a quad loop in competition—and the only skater ever to attempt two in a free skate—she wields multiple quads, a triple Axel, and towering base values. After securing Olympic qualification on international debut at the ISU Skate to Milano, a victory would extend coach Eteri Tutberidze's streak to four straight Olympic golds, reigniting debates over technical supremacy and fairness.

Market context
Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy